Central Asia in Transition No61
Table 1: The Kyrgyzstan economy 1993-1997
| 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | |
| GDP in current prices, mill. som | 5.355 | 12.019 | 15.606 | 22.467 | 30.438 |
| Real GDP growth, % change | -25.5 | -20.1 | -6.2 | 7.1 | 10.4 |
| CPI, % change | 1363.0 | 87.2 | 31.9 | 30.3 | 14.8 |
| Budget revenue, % of GDP | 16.1 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 16.1 | 15.1 |
| Budget expenditure, % of GDP | 23.5 | 24.4 | 29.3 | 23.3 | 18.9 |
| Budget deficit, % of GDP | -7.4 | -7.7 | -12.5 | -7.2 | -3.8 |
| Gross industrial output, % change | -24.6 | -27.9 | -12.5 | 11.9 | 46.8 |
| Gross agricultural output, % change | -9.8 | -18.5 | -2.0 | 46.6 | 10.7 |
| Exports, US$ mill. | 339.6 | 339.9 | 408.9 | 531.1 | 531.3 |
| Imports, US$ mill. | 365.3 | 315.8 | 522.3 | 893.8 | 623.4 |
| Trade balance, mill. som | -25.7 | 24.1 | -113 | -362 | -92.1 |
| Average som/dollar exchange rate | 5.04 | 10.84 | 10.82 | 12.80 | 17.37 |
| Investment in fixed assets, mill. som | 598 | 1,314 | 2,909 | 3,241 | 3,804.2 |
| Foreign direct investment, US $ mill. | 10.0 | 44.9 | 188.3 | 298.9 | 720.7 |
| Official unemployment rate % of total labour force |
0.3 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Average wages, som | 84 | 233 | 386 | 493.3 | 620 |
Table 2: Selected economic indicators.
| 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 Est. |
1997 Proj. |
|
| Output (Percentage change) | ||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 3 | -5 | -19 | -16 | -20 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 6 |
| Industrial gross output | -0.6 | -0.3 | -26 | -25 | -28 | -12.5 | 10.8 | na |
| Agricultural gross output | 1.3 | -10 | -5 | -10 | -15 | 4 | 13 | na |
| Composition of output (In % of GDP) | ||||||||
| Industry | 26 | 27 | 32 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 12 | na |
| Agriculture | 32 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 38 | 40 | 47 | na |
| Employment (Percentage change) | ||||||||
| Labor force | na | na | 0.4 | -3.1 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | na |
| Employment | na | 0.4 | 4.7 | -8.5 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | na |
| Unemploym. rate (In % of lab.force) | na | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.5 | na |
| Prices and wages (% change) | ||||||||
| Consumer prices (annual average) | na | 85 | 855 | 772 | 229 | 53 | 30 | 27 |
| Consumer prices (end-year) | na | 170 | 1,259 | 1,363 | 96 | 32 | 35 | 24 |
| Government Sector (In % of GDP) | ||||||||
| General government balance | 0.3 | 4.6 | -17.4 | -14.2 | -7.7 | -13.5 | -6.4 | -5.3 |
| General government expenditure and net lending |
38.3 | 30.3 | 33.9 | 39.1 | 28.6 | 30.2 | 23.4 | 22.3 |
| Monetary Sector (% change) | ||||||||
| Broad money (end-year) | na | 84 | 428 | 180 | 125 | 78 | 22 | na |
| Net domestic assets | na | na | 761 | 307 | 84 | 91 | 25 | na |
| Interest and exchange rates (In % per annum end- year) | ||||||||
| Refinancing rate | na | na | na | 277 | 89.5 | 45.8 | 45.9 | na |
| Treasury bill rate (three month maturity) | na | na | na | na | 73 | 44 | 64.4 | na |
| Deposit rate (three-month, min/max rates) | na | na | na | na | na | 20/50 | 15/40 | na |
| Lending rate (min/max rates) | na | na | na | na | na | 35/140 | 45/120 | na |
| (Denominations as indicated) | ||||||||
| Exchange rate (end-year) | 1.7 | 1.7 | 415 | 8 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 16.7 | na |
| Exchange rate (annual average) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 222 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 12.9 | na |
| External sector (In mln. of US.$) | ||||||||
| Current account balance | na | na | -61 | -162 | -124 | -288 | -414 | na |
| Trade balance | na | -41 | -74 | -166 | -119 | -263 | -373 | na |
| Exports | na | 3,845 | 258 | 335 | 340 | 409 | 529 | na |
| Imports | na | 3,886 | 332 | 501 | 459 | 672 | 902 | na |
| Foreign direct investment, net | na | na | na | 10 | 45 | 61 | 31 | na |
| Gross reserves (end-year) incl. Gold | na | na | na | 46 | 97 | 115 | 129 | na |
| External debt stock | na | naa | na | 290 | 414 | 543 | 746 | na |
| Gross reserves (end-year) incl. Gold | na | na | na | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | na |
| Debt service (In % of merchandise ex) | na | na | na | 0.6 | 5 | 22 | 18 | na |
| Memorandum items (Denominations as indi cated) | ||||||||
| Population (in mill. beginn. of year) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | na |
| GDP (in millions . of Som) | 43 | 93 | 741 | 5,355 | 12,019 | 16,100 | 22,500 | na |
| GDP per capita (in US dollars) | na | na | na | 195 | 245 | 331 | 379 | na |
| GNP per capita (in US dollars) | na | na | na | na | 1,559 | 1,621 | na | na |
| at PPP exchange rates | ||||||||
Source: EBRD, Transition report 1997. Notes: Data for 1990-1996 represent official estimates of outturns as reflected in publications from the national authorities, the IMF, the WB, the OECD, PlanEcon and the Institute of International Finance. Data for 1997 reflect EBRD evaluations, partly based on information from these sources.
| 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | |
| (In millions of soms at cur rent prices) | ||||||
| GDP | 92.6 | 741.3 | 5,354.70 | 12,019.20 | 16,145.1 | 22,467.8 |
| Manufacturing | 25.4 | 238.3 | 1,344.50 | 2,461.70 | 1,931.3 | 2,676.1 |
| Construction | 5.9 | 29.1 | 289.6 | 408.9 | 992.5 | 1,183.1 |
| Forestry | 0.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 16.6 | 21.6 |
| Agriculture | 32.6 | 276.2 | 2,090.60 | 4,601.30 | 6,551.5 | 10,464.0 |
| Other commodity sectors | 0.4 | 2.4 | 13.2 | 33.2 | 36.8 | 48.7 |
| Transport and construction | 1.9 | 12.3 | 162.1 | 331.6 | 313.8 | 465.3 |
| Trade and catering | 3.9 | 26.1 | 349.9 | 1,162.40 | 1,774.4 | 2,372.0 |
| Procurement | 0.3 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 9.2 |
| Supplies | 0.7 | 12.6 | 52 | 36.3 | 53.8 | 74.4 |
| Information, computing | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| services | ||||||
| Real estate | 0.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8.6 | 11.3 | |
| Commerce | 6.5 | 44.3 | 22.7 | 56.8 | 75.9 | |
| Geological services | 0.4 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 40.1 | 52.2 |
| Market services | 3.7 | 26.6 | 182.5 | 600.4 | 906.8 | 1,211.3 |
| Banking services | 0.5 | 5.9 | 129.2 | 298 | 293.9 | 323.0 |
| Non-market services | 12.2 | 64.9 | 416.3 | 1,290.70 | 1,967.5 | 2,056.7 |
| Taxes on products | 4.3 | 33.8 | 248.6 | 740.1 | 1,184.3 | 1,411.2 |
| (In % of GDP) | ||||||
| GDP | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Manufacturing | 27.5 | 32.1 | 25.1 | 20.5 | 12 | 11.9 |
| Construction | 6.3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
| Forestry | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Agriculture | 35.3 | 37.3 | 39 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 46.6 |
| Other commodity sectors | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Transport and construction | 2 | 1.7 | 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Trade and catering | 4.2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 11 | 10.6 |
| Procurement | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Supplies | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Information, computing | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| services | ||||||
| Real estate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Commerce | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
| Geological services | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Market services | 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 5 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Banking services | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Non-market services | 13.2 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 9.2 |
| Taxes on products | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
Sources: National Statistical Committee; IMF staff estimates