With only a quick glance11
at regional indicator values of those (economic and noneconomic)
aspects of development that were not covered by quantitative analysis
we can notice that, depending on the point in time we choose for our
assessment, the data can be either the determinants or the consequences
of growth. All indicators of demographic development display changes in
accordance with the standard conception of modernization. Thus, for
example, an increased number of households is accompanied by a decline
in the number of household members. This rule applies to all regions
except Kosovo-Metohia, where a rising number of household members
occurred. Life expectancy for both males and females improved in all
regions without exception. Some of these indicators, however, in terms
of the magnitude of their change, also reveal a strong influence of the
concept of socialist industrialization. A sharp decline in the
percentage of agricultural population, from a factor greater than five
(in Montenegro) to a factor greater than two and a half (in central
Serbia), is unparalleled in the world. One of its consequences was that
the percentage of the urban population more than doubled in all
regions.
An increase in the relative significance of the GNP and the value
of industrial fixed assets also speaks about the results of the
development concept, which was understood to be industrialization.
Thus, for example, in Montenegro, the share of the manufacturing
industry in GNP in 1987 was more than seven times larger than in 1947,
whereas on the Yugoslav level this share was more than twice as large
as in 1947. The share of industrial fixed assets also rose
considerably. Macedonia achieved the largest increase of industrial
fixed assets, of some 70%. The ideological impact of this concept of
development was reflected in the change of GNP's property structure.
The share of the private sector in the GNP on the Yugoslav level fell
2.3 times from 1952 to 1990. The steepest decline occurred in Slovenia
and central Serbia. In Slovenia the private sector's share in the GNP
fell 2.7 times, while in central Serbia it fell 2.6 times. An increased
share of exports in the GNP shows that the economy was opening up,
while an increase in the relative importance of imports of raw
materials and intermediate goods speaks of the increased
import-dependence of the economy.
The change in the social development indicators also reflects an
important egalitarian component of the development concept thanks to
which special importance was attached to the social "superstructure."
Thus, in 1988 the number of medical doctors per 10,000 inhabitants of
Yugoslavia was almost six times greater than in 1952, with the highest
increase occurring in Macedonia and Kosovo-Metohia. The number of
doctors per 10,000 inhabitants increased by a factor of ten in
Macedonia, and by a factor of nine in Kosovo-Metohia. There was also a
great rise in the number of junior college and university students. The
sharpest increase was recorded in Kosovo-Metohia with zero students per
1000 persons in 1947/48 school year, and as many as 19 in 1988/89,
which represents the highest value of this indicator in comparison to
other regions. In the observed period, central Serbia had the smallest,
2.5-fold increase in the number of students per 1000 persons. The
living-standard indicators rose sharply as well. The proportion of
households with a TV set was 47 times higher in 1981 than in 1961, and
the proportion of households with a passenger car was almost 26 times
higher. The rise of these indicators was again the sharpest in
underdeveloped regions, particularly in Kosovo-Metohia.
Underdeveloped regions invested enormous effort and resources into
schools, hospitals, dwellings, the mass media and the like in order to
become "modern." However, they were more concerned with quantity
(indicators) than with quality. The expansion of social institutions
involved a direct copying of the developed regions' behavioural
patterns and systems of values ("demonstration effect"), which caused
the "revolution of rising expectations,"soon to be replaced, however,
by the "revolution of rising disappointment and frustration." But the
social dimension was not instrumental in bringing about the expected
dynamics of the economic side of development. New rules of the game
were equally visible in consumption: here as well, modernization
fostered new needs and aspirations. Moreover, suddenly increased
appetites for the consumption of "modern"goods and services created a
profound dissatisfaction with traditional living conditions, especially
in rural areas. The outcome is known: the mass exodus to industrial
centres in urban areas. A shortage of the labour force in the
agricultural sector was accompanied by huge urban unemployment. This
imbalance had far-reaching consequences: a growing pauperization of the
people who remained in rural areas and of those who were caught in the
trap of chronic urban unemployment. Development through modernization
(i.e. industrialization) resulted in income differences between
individuals and social groups as well as between urban and rural areas.
Under the circumstances -contrary to all expectations -economic and
social dualism increased. Both types of dualism conspicuously
manifested themselves in rising unemployment.